Tornado Alley Is Shifting East. These Housing Markets Are Unprepared and Face the Biggest Risks.

Most people associate high tornado risk with states such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. 

While Tornado Alley has always been in the Great Plains region—which stretches from Texas up to South Dakota—it’s been moving eastward into the Southeast and Midwest over the past few decades.

Now, states such as Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee are in the line of fire.

The reasons behind this shift? Scientists attribute it to climate change and changing atmospheric conditions. Warmer, drier air across parts of the Western U.S. has led to a stronger “cap,” which suppresses thunderstorms, allowing heat and moisture to build up. 

When the cap finally breaks, it can release explosive supercell storms that may produce intense tornadoes farther east.

Not only are Southeast and Midwest states experiencing more frequent tornado outbreaks, but they’re also far more intense. In fact, they can move as fast as 60 to 70 mph at anytime of the day, including the evenings, often in more populated areas where damage is far more likely to arise. 

If you live in a state that wasn’t historically known for twisters in the past or plan to buy a house in one, be sure to reassess your risk and ensure you’re prepared for any violent tornadoes that may come your way.

What this shift means for 'traditionally safe' housing markets

Even if you’re in a market that was once considered low-risk for tornadoes or think you’ll be in the future, you’ll likely face higher home insurance costs. 

“Homeowners that have resided in areas historically low-risk are seeing insurance premiums rise as carriers reassess exposure to severe weather events that are now relevant to the area, such as tornadoes,” says Mona Sullivan, insurance and risk management executive at JRS Risk Consultants LLC in Atlanta. 

Julia Taliesin, economic analyst and licensed insurance agent at Insurify in Boston, explains that since 2021, the average home insurance premium has soared 46% to $2,948 annually, and climate risk plays a large part in that.

“While traditional Tornado Alley states still face significant risk, the increased tornado frequency in the Midwest and Southeast brings the issue to new states,” explains Taliesin.

Beyond the higher premiums are the increased deductibles, reduced coverage options, and strict underwriting requirements. 

The need for costly retrofitting in the form of safe rooms or storm shutters may also be an issue.

According to Devin Henry, president at Nomadic Real Estate in Washington, DC, a safe room with reinforced walls and ceilings may cost between $4,000 and $8,000, and the storm shutters can add around $10,000, depending on the size of your home. 

“Most of the time, buyers are not budgeting for these types of expenses and most sellers won’t offer credits to cover these costs. So the responsibility will fall solely on the new buyer, and most of them are not prepared for this outlay of cash until it's too late,” Henry explains.

Additionally, as insurance risk ratings continue to climb, the value of properties located in newly exposed markets is starting to decline.

“We see properties that were previously considered low-risk taking much longer to sell. And since buyers are beginning to evaluate insurance costs along with retrofitting expenses, they often have much lower bids than they would have in the past,” Henry explains. 

How to assess climate risk before buying a home

Before you sign on the dotted line and buy a home you love in an area that is now at higher risk for tornadoes, follow these steps.

Review the FEMA hazard map

Check the FEMA hazards map for the property’s exact address—not just its ZIP code.

“In many cases, risk changes from one block to the next in newly exposed markets, and many times buyers do not take the extra step to check this,” explains Henry.  

Put home insurance on your radar early 

“Treat home insurance as part of the discovery process, not the closing process,” says Chris Bacon, COO of Openly in Boston.

Getting quotes before making an offer provides a much clearer picture of what coverage will cost as premiums can vary based on factors like construction type, roof age, proximity to emergency services, and local weather risks.

Explore coverage options

Coverage can vary significantly among carriers, and it's important to know whether a potential policy pays actual cash value or full replacement cost, especially in areas facing rising tornado risk. 

“There are also ancillary coverages that you need to think about such as debris removal and damages to trees, plants, and shrubs. Often, there are coverage limits that people don’t realize are there until they file a claim,” explains Bacon. 

Inquire about home hardening (or budget for it)

Ask whether any home hardening—improvements that make a home more resistant to damage from severe weather and natural disasters—have been performed on the property. 

“Some insurers will offer a discount on your premium if your home has weather-mitigating upgrades such as a fortified roof or storm windows,” says Taliesin. 

Even if you can’t land a discount, budgeting for upgrades like a safe room and storm shutters may be worthwhile. 

Hire an inspector

Not all inspectors are created equal. Do some research and hire an inspector who has a thorough knowledge of wind-resistance standards that are specific to the home’s location. 

“A general inspector will likely miss areas that a local specialist will see immediately,” Henry notes. 

Speak to local experts

Find a few local insurance agents and/or property managers who may be able to discuss claims trends in the area, as public maps may not give you the full picture. 

“People involved in the claims process and those managing properties on the ground know what happens when storms strike, and the knowledge that they have is far more valuable than what any report can capture,” explains Henry.