The Century’s Strongest El Niño Could Be Forming: How Savvy Homeowners Can Prepare for Rare Storm Surge

With meteorologists tracking a "super El Niño" for 2026, homeowners need to look beyond the standard rain preparation this season.

The Washington Post reported that the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts outlook “indicates there’s a high chance for a supercharged version of the climate pattern that affects regional-to-global weather patterns this summer or fall, doubling down on a super El Niño prediction from last month.”

In addition, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that “in June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.”

The Western United States will likely face a summer defined by above-average temperatures and high humidity, potentially leading to unusual downpours that extend into the Plains and prolong the severe thunderstorm season. Heat waves are also projected to occur more frequently throughout the Southern United States. While the Atlantic Coast may see a welcome reduction in hurricane activity, islands in the Pacific, specifically Hawaii and Guam, face a heightened risk of hurricanes and typhoons.

This phenomenon disrupts typical weather patterns—specifically, increasing the risk of unusual storm surges and coastal flooding, even in "quiet" hurricane years, due to rising sea levels and warmer Pacific waters. Chad Merrill, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, says a super El Niño pattern will lead to an active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific and likely a near or slightly below-average season in the Atlantic.

As such, experts say that the time to prepare is now to avoid potentially very costly financial issues.

How is this phenomenon disrupting typical weather patterns?

Merrill says the biggest takeaway for this year's hurricane season, occurring during late summer into fall, is that homeowners in the Southwest and Southern California may have to deal with more instances of tropical flooding.

“Maybe more than previous years, as moisture from a few East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes could push into these areas before they lose their moisture,” he says, adding that typically, tropical storms and hurricanes from the East Pacific lose much of their moisture before reaching the Southwest and Southern California because of the cooler water near Baja California and Southern California.

He adds that a combination of El Niño and a marine heat wave off the Southern California and Baja California coasts will likely keep some of the moisture from a few northward-moving East Pacific storms from completely drying out before reaching southern California and the Southwest.

“High winds and storm surge, though, are not expected to impact Southern California into the Southwest. There is a higher-than-average risk for tropical impacts along the Carolina coast as well,” he says.

Merrill says homeowners along the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast don't have to do anything differently than in previous years to prepare for the super El Niño.

“They should just remember the steps they have taken in the past to protect their home from storm surge, high wind, and flooding,” he adds.

How homeowners can prep for hurricane season

Reviewing flood insurance

Courtney Klosterman, home insights expert at Hippo Insurance, said that floods are the most common and expensive natural disasters in the U.S., and Hippo’s 2026 Housepower Report found that 14% of U.S. homeowners have seen an increase in flood risk in the past year.

“But surprisingly, many homeowners don't realize that standard homeowners insurance policies don't include flood coverage, which can leave homeowners in flood-prone areas without essential protection,” she says, adding that the report found that only 19% of homeowners have purchased flood insurance riders, which are add-on policies.

Klosterman explains that flood insurance covers both your home's structure and everything inside it, and you can get it through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or private insurers.

Andy Gibbs, CEO of RemodX, a home remodeling planning website, urges homeowners to get flood insurance immediately.

“If the homeowner is NOT in a FEMA flood zone, obtaining flood insurance now can be as low as $400, and there's usually a mandatory 30-day waiting period before coverage kicks in,” he says.

Checking sump pumps

Dean Bennett, residential contractor and president of Dean Bennett Design & Construction, says that if you have a sump pump, take proactive steps to be sure it is functioning properly.

He says most sump pumps have a float valve.

“Raise the valve to see if the pump turns on. Or, if you are unable to reach the valve, you can run water from a hose into the pump to see if it works,” he says. “For problems, check connections, the reset button, and the circuit breaker. If these things don’t work, call a plumber or an electrician. Don’t wait for El Niño—do it now.”

Clean your gutters

Clogged gutters allow water to collect on your roof and can cause structural damage, mold, and rotting.

“Clear your gutters of any leaves, twigs, muck, and other debris at least twice per year: once in the spring and once in the fall. Being proactive with this easy task is one of the best flood control methods,” Klosterman says.

Check trees and structural surroundings

Weeks of saturated ground followed by high winds are when trees fall on houses.

“We tell homeowners to check the prevailing wind direction in their area to determine which trees to prioritize. Then contact an arborist. Emergency tree removal from a damaged roof costs tens of thousands,” Gibbs says.

Point your downspouts away from the house

The downspouts are the pipes that run vertically on the side of your home and pick up where your gutters leave off, Klosterman explains. She says that if your downspout isn’t far enough from your house, water can leak back into your basement or cause foundation issues or mold growth.

“Direct (and extend if necessary) downspouts away from the house, so water can flow farther away from your home. Optimally, your downspouts should extend 5 to 10 feet from your house, with one downspout for every 20 feet of guttering,” she adds.

Pay attention to foundation cracks

While foundation cracks are usually not the source of basement flooding, they can be problematic in homes 40 years or older, according to Bennett.

This is because foundations were not waterproofed according to modern standards then. For these homes, it’s a good idea to monitor any cracks seen in the basement,” he says.

If you notice a crack growing or shifting over time, call an engineer and consider recommended mitigation efforts.

“Pay attention now and in the coming few months so that you have time to take action if needed,” he adds.

 Install preventative and smart devices

Klosterman also recommends installing a smart home device that can detect water and gas leaks and provide professional assistance when you need it most.

“Smart home devices may even help you save on your homeowners' insurance premiums,” she says.

Dig a drainage system around your house

Installing a drainage system around your house can be one of the most effective solutions to flooding, according to Klosterman. She stresses, however, that homeowners should call 811 before digging to keep themselves and underground utility lines safe.

Document your home now and have a contractor lined up

Remodx’s Gibbs recommends photographing every room and major system; insurers won't cover pre-existing damage, and post-disaster claims move faster with prior documentation

Another tip: After a major weather event, contractor prices surge, timelines stretch, and the least scrupulous operators flood the market targeting desperate homeowners, he says.

“We guide homeowners through scoping projects correctly, setting realistic budgets, and vetting contractors before the crisis hits—because the homeowner who has a licensed contractor lined up before the storm is the one who gets repaired first and overpays the least,” Gibbs adds.