The ‘Costco Economy’: How Nervous Buyers and E-Shaped Trends Might Reshape Property Values

The "E-shaped economy" has arrived, top economists say. More than ever, people are being smarter about their spending, looking closely at every dollar, from the weekly grocery bill to a huge purchase like a house.

The “E-shape” comes from the emergence of three tiers of consumers. The top tier is continuing to spend confidently, and the bottom tier is continuing to take on debt and use credit to pay bills and stay afloat.

Meanwhile, a middle tier of nervous Americans are increasingly stretching their dollars, searching for deals, and living paycheck to paycheck. A previous “K-shape” meant that only top earners were doing well and everyone else was trending down. 

The middle tier presents an interesting conundrum for people looking to sell their homes. How do you price, market, and sell a property in an environment where many buyers are prioritizing value and necessity over everything else? 

Meet the calculator-carrying homebuyer

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, has dubbed this middle tier the “Costco economy” for the way they tend to shop at wholesale and discount stores. Consumer sentiment fell nearly 13% year over year as of February, and the culprit isn’t any single price spike. “Every couple of months, something else surges,” Long told CNBC. That mentality now shapes how these Americans approach big-ticket decisions—including buying a home.

After years of being locked out by rising prices, tight inventory, and elevated mortgage rates, middle-tier buyers are finally getting some relief. Inventory is climbing—Realtor.com® forecasts an 8.9% increase in existing-home for-sale inventory in 2026—and mortgage rates have eased modestly. Affordability and opportunity are improving, but slowly.

There is a much different tenor to these homebuyers than the ones who flooded the market in 2020 and 2021. Rather than looking to win at all costs, they are bringing their value-minded outlook to the process. 

“After years of being sidelined by the housing crunch, climbing inventory and easing borrowing costs are finally bringing these households back into focus,” says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. “However, they aren’t returning with a sense of exuberance, but with a calculator. They are zeroing in on homes and ZIP codes that offer the most bang for their buck, prioritizing functional stability over aspirational luxury.”

Bridget Bass, a real estate adviser at Compass, says the approach runs deeper than being picky about sticker prices. “Today’s mid-tier buyers are extremely value driven,” she says. “They are taking longer to make decisions, exhausting all options in their search, and doing detailed cost analysis of insurance, taxes, maintenance, and renovation expenses.”

The upper end of the market, meanwhile, is thriving. National Association of Realtors® chief economist Lawrence Yun has noted that sales in the $750,000-to-$1-million range have seen some of the largest year-over-year gains, with cash-flush repeat buyers dominating transactions. First-time buyers, by contrast, fell to an all-time low of 21% of the market in 2025—well below their historical 40% share. That’s the E-shape in action. 

What middle-tier buyers actually care about

In the middle market, the anxiety isn’t only about purchase price. It’s about what comes after. Andrew Fortune, owner of a real estate brokerage in Colorado Springs, CO, sees it firsthand. 

“These buyers worry entirely about the monthly payment and ongoing costs after closing,” Fortune says. “Property taxes almost always jump up after the first year. Insurance premiums are rising rapidly. Buyers scrutinize HOA reserve studies before making an offer. A bad reserve study kills a deal quickly.”

That cost-consciousness extends to the condition of the home itself. Deferred maintenance, once negotiable, may now be a deal-breaker. Buyers in this segment don’t have deep cash reserves to absorb surprises, so they are shopping with that in mind. 

“Cosmetic updates like fresh paint don't matter right now. Buyers care more about expensive mandatory structural home improvements,” says Fortune. “A brand-new electrical panel offers a high return. A replaced HVAC system removes buyer hesitation. A brand new roof creates a more committed buyer.”

Bass agrees. “[Buyers] are asking detailed questions about the age of the roof and the home’s systems because the cost of repair or replacement can quickly push the home out of budget.” Move-in-ready homes continue to command a notable premium for exactly this reason.

That said, fixer-uppers aren’t off the table—they just require honest math. Jones notes that many middle-tier buyers are open to investing sweat equity, but only when the asking price realistically accounts for the cost of repairs. A home that needs $60,000 in work priced as if it doesn’t won’t get offers.

A seller’s guide for the nervous-buyer market

Selling in a value-driven market requires a different playbook. 

First, more than ever, price for reality, not aspiration. Jones calls overpricing to leave room to negotiate “the most ill-advised strategy in 2026.” 

“If the value isn’t apparent, the seller risks losing buyer attention altogether,” she says. “By the time a seller realizes their mistake and cuts the price, the home has already lost its freshness and buyers begin to wonder what’s hidden behind the walls.” 

When marketing your listing, lead with transparency. The Costco buyer reads the label before they buy. Sellers who proactively offer a pre-inspection report, maintenance records, and documentation of recent system upgrades are speaking the language of the anxious buyer. Fortune recommends having a printed inspection report on the counter at showings. “It shifts the conversation away from fear and unknown costs,” he says. “It shows them exactly what’s right with the property.”

In addition, function may need to take precedence over luxury. Listing language that leans on “entertainer’s dream” or “resort-style living” can feel tone-deaf to buyers focused on stability and value. Highlight what matters to the calculator crowd: roof age, HVAC vintage, utility costs, school ratings, commute proximity. The practical details aren’t a consolation prize—they’re the selling point.

Finally, consider completing the repairs before listing. A seller repair credit, once a reliable tool for bridging gaps, has lost its effectiveness. “Middle-tier people need the actual work completed before closing,” Fortune says. “They simply don’t have the cash to fix it themselves.” Sellers who want to attract this buyer need to show up with a home that’s ready.

The Costco buyer is much less likely to impulse-purchase. They compare, calculate, and walk away from anything that doesn't add up. But when the value is there, they commit. As Bass puts it: "The home has to clearly stand out as the best property available, or have a price compelling enough to justify the purchase." Sellers who understand that—and price and prepare accordingly—will find this buyer is not nearly as hard to reach as the current climate might suggest.