Home Values Show Tepid Growth as South and West Continue To Lag

National growth in home values remained weak in the fall as major metros in the South and West continued to see declines, according to a key home price index.

Nationally, the value of single-family homes as measured by repeat transactions rose 1.4% in November compared to a year earlier, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday.

The annual gain in November was identical to the prior month, and 15 of the 20 major metro areas tracked by the index saw prices decline from October on a monthly basis.

"November's results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth," says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "High mortgage rates continue to cast a long shadow over housing."

Home prices continued to grow the most in the Northeast and Midwest, led by Chicago with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase. Following were New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%.

Meanwhile, Sun Belt metros continued to show the most weakness in home values. Tampa saw the biggest decline at -3.9%, followed by Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%).

The new data reflects sales closing primarily from September through November, a period when mortgage rates reached the low-6% range after staying above 6.5% until mid-September, according to Freddie Mac.

"That rate relief likely helped stabilize buyer sentiment into the fall, though rate lock-in and elevated prices continued to limit overall market turnover," says Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith. "Recent housing activity suggests demand is improving only modestly."

Mortgage rates continued to ease through the end of 2025, reaching their lowest level of the year on Jan. 31, when they touched 6.15%.

Typically, falling mortgage rates are correlated with faster home price growth, as lower borrowing costs increase home buyers’ purchasing power, says BrightMLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant.

"In the current environment, however, it is likely we will see both rates and price appreciation fall in early 2026," predicts Sturtevant. "Would-be buyers have hit an affordability ceiling and they are looking for both lower rates and more price negotiation to get into the market."

Affordability challenges have kept a lid on home sales, which fell to their lowest level in 30 years in 2025 as many buyers remained on the sidelines.

However, home values as measured by Case-Shiller are growing more slowly than overall inflation, signaling that prices are falling in real dollars.

November's 1.4% annual gain in home prices remained well below the 2.7% annual inflation rate in the Consumer Price Index for that month.

The Case-Shiller Index reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month moving average of home sales prices.

Homes usually go under contract a month or two before they close, so the November data primarily reflects purchase decisions made in the late summer or early fall.

Although the Index's price data is delayed by several months, it is considered one of the best available measures of changing home values, because it is based on repeat transactions on the same properties.